In terms of betting favorites, do you recall the shorter Blue Jays World Series odds of +340 at DraftKings that I discussed on Saturday morning? They were right behind the Dodgers. Nevermind. Following two crushing defeats to the Seattle Mariners at home in the American Championship Series (ALCS), the team's championship hopes were completely derailed in two days over the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend.
The odds for the Blue Jays Significantly Change
In the Age of Trump, Canadian sports fans deprive themselves of any chance to cheer for their country's few remaining teams, particularly when they are playing the powerful Americans. During hockey's 4 Nations Face-Off last winter, particularly during the well-known line fight game in Montreal, we witnessed it firsthand. Do you recall the insanely high betting volume for that last game in Boston, which was won by Team Canada?
The Mariners have a ton of hitters in their lineup, including MVP contender Cal Raleigh, Jorge Polanco, and Julio Rodriguez. At the trade deadline, they also acquired sluggers Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.
Bryce Miller's performance in Game 1 on Sunday was unexpected by Blue Jays bettors. Miller, fifth in the Mariners' starting pitching chart (after Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, and George Kirby), went six innings after giving up a leadoff home run to George Springer on the first pitch. This was part of the Jays' home run dominance that rocked the country against the Yankees in the ALDS. Game 1 would be won 3-1 by Seattle.
Favorites for Mariners wagering on Game 3 of the ALCS
The Jays then countered with rookie Trey Yesavage, who wrote the main plot of the Yankees series, after the Mariners started Gilbert in Game 2 yesterday. Yesavage pitched 5.1 innings and recorded 11 strikeouts. Naylor, Polanco, and Rodriguez (with two) all hit home runs as they won 10–3. Yesterday, Yesavage had a rocky first inning before settling down and giving the club four innings with five runs, four hits, and four strikeouts.
What comes next? Shane Bieber, a former Cy Young winner and starter (7 GP, 4-2, 3.57 ERA, 40.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 37 SOs), was acquired by the Blue specifically for these kinds of games. Tomorrow at 8:08 p.m. EST, he kicks off Game 3 in Seattle's T-Mobile Park. (23 GP, 10-8, 4.21 ERA, 126.0 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 137 SOs) Kirby pitches for the Mariners. The weather forecast for tomorrow is 16 degrees Celsius (61 degrees Fahrenheit) with a 5% probability of precipitation.
Game 2 Domination: Four HRs
Thus, the energy and excitement around the Yankees series in Toronto and Canada in general have vanished like leftover turkey from the weekend.
Now what about those odds for the World Series? It's merely a killing field. The Jays were +325 prior to the ALCS, +550 following Game 1's loss, and +1200 following Game 2 tonight, according to BetMGM. The odds for the Blue Jays to win the World Series were +300 at ESPN BET before to Game 1. By late Sunday night, Toronto was up +500, and following Game 2, they were up +1200, where they are now.
Since Canadians bet on the few Canadian sports teams with a vigor that Americans couldn't comprehend, Canadian sportsbook operators are undoubtedly sleeping better after the events of the last few days. Previously, they were staring at the double barrel of a huge Jays liability. Canadians bet on their favorite professional sports teams because they adore them.
Canadian Sportsbooks Do Well
“Speaking with a few colleagues, they certainly did quite well on those two individual games,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction. Jays are out to 5/1 now on ALCS and 14/1 WS, and they are still seeing considerable action on those growing the risk.
“Conversely a large U.S. book I was speaking with did very poorly with the Dodgers Game 1 win [over the Brewers in the NLCS] and Seattle taking the first two games. That really highlights the contrast as I’ve speaking about – the day and night difference in betting patterns when a Canadian team is playing and hometown bettors. It is quite unique – given that we only have a few teams in major sports.
“But certainly, when the USA is in an international competition it becomes the same. By far the biggest liability for U.S. books in next year’s World Cup for example will be the U.S. Men’s Team. That’s going to be massive. U.S. also bets by region, so Las Vegas sees a different lean on West Coast teams than the Eastern books do, for example.”
Game 3: Bieber vs. Kirby
The Moneyline Blue Jays +115 and Mariners -135, the Spread Jays +1.5 (-208), the Mariners -1.5 (+170), the Over at 7 (+100), and the Under 7 are all listed on BetMGM for Game 3.
“The Blue Jays entered the ALCS as the second-favorite team to win the World Series, priced at +325, behind the Dodgers. After Sunday’s loss, they were adjusted to +550,” said Eric Biggio, the Lead Baseball oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook. “After yesterday’s loss, they’ve drifted to 14/1. Unfortunate for the book as well, as the Blue Jays winning would be our best-case scenario for World Series futures liability.”
Biggio was talking more about the combined liabilities of Canadian and American wagerers. For Game 3, do Canadian gamblers still place more emotional wagers than logical ones?
